🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 April 2025, 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 2.40 PPG versus Daejeon Citizen's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Daejeon Citizen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Daejeon Citizen 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.824 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.447 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.082. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 39 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 41%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Daejeon Citizen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights