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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face Ulsan Hyundai FC.

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Match Analysis

Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 05:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Suwon City FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Ulsan Hyundai FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Suwon City FC's 1 victories.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–4 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 0.87 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.978 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.120. Data: 37 Suwon City FC games / 37 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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