FC Seoul 3-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Seoul face Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Daegu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 05:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Seoul have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Seoul are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Daegu FC away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (FC Seoul) versus 1.00 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Seoul, 3 for Daegu FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended FC Seoul 1–1 Daegu FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Seoul in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 59% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 49% | Daegu FC 45%). Note also that Daegu FC surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while FC Seoul recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 0.98 xG and Daegu FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.016 / defence 0.841 | Daegu FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.145. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 38 games and Daegu FC's last 38.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 37% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.68 | Draw 3.08 | Daegu FC 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Seoul 40% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 37% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG FC Seoul 0.98 / Daegu FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.016 / def 0.841 | Daegu FC attack 0.883 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Daegu FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Seoul vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
FC Seoul 3 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 37% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Seoul and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will FC Seoul vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 1.02x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Seoul's last 38 games and Daegu FC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.08
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
1.83
0.85
Daegu FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Seoul vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.85 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 30W 23D 23L from 76 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 26D 27L across 76 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.49 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 16W 10D 11L from their last 37 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 10W 9D 18L across their last 37 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Seoul
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ FC Seoul vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 26D 27L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Daegu FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.57 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 8 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won FC Seoul 3-0 Daegu FC.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Seoul vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Seoul have won 3, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2025: FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 57%, Daegu FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (FC Seoul) and 43% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Seoul vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Seoul and Daegu FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 49% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Seoul and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of FC Seoul's recent games and 43% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 51% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Daegu FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Daegu FC 3-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.98 xG and Daegu FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 37% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 30%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 49%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.49 PPG, Daegu FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.