Daegu FC 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daegu FC face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Suwon City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 0.60 (Suwon City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Daegu FC, 1 for Suwon City FC and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Jul 2024, ended Daegu FC 2–2 Suwon City FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 37 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 54% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Suwon City FC 56%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.118 / defence 0.982 | Suwon City FC attack 0.874 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.244. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 34 games and Suwon City FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.45 | Draw 3.58 | Suwon City FC 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Daegu FC 34 games, Suwon City FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Daegu FC 1.26 / Suwon City FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.118 / def 0.982 | Suwon City FC attack 0.874 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 34 games and Suwon City FC's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.58
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.07 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 23W 27D 28L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 24W 17D 37L from 78 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.23 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 39 home games (13W 17D 9L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 20L from their last 39 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 27D 28L in their last 78 games (1.23 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 56%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Daegu FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Daegu FC's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Daegu FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 92% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Suwon City FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.23 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.