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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 0 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Anyang winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.97 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.050 / defence 1.129 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.072. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 FC Anyang games / 43 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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