FC Anyang 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Anyang face Ulsan Hyundai FC.

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Match Analysis

FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, FC Anyang have won 1, Ulsan Hyundai FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2025, ended FC Anyang 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a FC Anyang win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.97 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.050 / defence 1.129 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.072. Ulsan Hyundai FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.774, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Anyang's projected output down. Data: built from FC Anyang's last 9 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 43.

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.21 | Draw 3.35 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

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