FC Anyang 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Anyang and Suwon City FC meet at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon City FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.04 xG and Suwon City FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.864 / defence 1.120 | Suwon City FC attack 0.743 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.065. Data: 8 FC Anyang games / 41 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 38% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Suwon City FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Anyang if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 38% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG FC Anyang 1.04 / Suwon City FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.864 / def 1.120 | Suwon City FC attack 0.743 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Suwon City FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC?
FC Anyang 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Anyang and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Anyang and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Suwon City FC away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.86) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.74x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 8/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
38%
2.61
31%
3.18
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
1.92
0.89
Suwon City FC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for FC Anyang and 0.89 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Suwon City FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
0
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Suwon City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when FC Anyang 0-1 Suwon City FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Anyang cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.04 xG and Suwon City FC 0.89 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Suwon City FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 38% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 30%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.