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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Gimcheon Sangmu FC take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.

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Match Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Gimcheon Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.

Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.71 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.864 / defence 0.772 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.919 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.074. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 44 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.47. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.47 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

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