🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 06:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gangwon FC and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Gangwon FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Gangwon FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Gangwon FC 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG and Gangwon FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.028 / defence 0.926 | Gangwon FC attack 0.795 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.044. Data: 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 41 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Gangwon FC 4.55. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights