Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Gangwon FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Gangwon FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Gangwon FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG and Gangwon FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.028 / defence 0.926 | Gangwon FC attack 0.795 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.044. Data: 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 41 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Gangwon FC 4.55. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 / Gangwon FC 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.028 / def 0.926 | Gangwon FC attack 0.795 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Gangwon FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 0 | Gangwon FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.43
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.77
Gangwon FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.77 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 44W 16D 16L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.34 PPG from 76 outings (26W 24D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 27W 7D 4L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.08 points per game from 38 outings (10W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 games (1.95 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 26W 24D 26L in their last 76 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Gangwon FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 37% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 47% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 37% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG and Gangwon FC 0.77 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Gangwon FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 22%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Gangwon FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.