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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as FC Anyang welcome Jeju United FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Jeju United FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.963 / defence 1.105 | Jeju United FC attack 0.712 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.086. Data: 10 FC Anyang games / 42 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 41% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Jeju United FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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