Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to face Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 1 September 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 0.80 for Suwon City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Daejeon Citizen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Suwon City FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daejeon Citizen lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 63% versus Suwon City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 63% | Suwon City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 2.14 xG and Suwon City FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.057 / defence 1.314 | Suwon City FC attack 0.998 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.152. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Daejeon Citizen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Daejeon Citizen games / 61 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 51% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Suwon City FC 3.85. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 70% | Suwon City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 51% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Daejeon Citizen 2.14 / Suwon City FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.057 / def 1.314 | Suwon City FC attack 0.998 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Suwon City FC xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 1.06x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.00x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 28/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.52
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
3.65
1.51
Suwon City FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
3%
31.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.51 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Daejeon Citizen have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 11W 10D 9L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 7W 5D 18L from 30 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daejeon Citizen have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.03 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.79 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 3-0 on 18 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
1
Draws
5
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 64%, Suwon City FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Daejeon Citizen and 71% for Suwon City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 57% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Daejeon Citizen's matches and 71% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 2.14 xG and Suwon City FC 1.51 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.42, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 51% | Draw 22% | Suwon City FC 26%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 63%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.