Suwon City FC 1-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Incheon United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Incheon United travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Incheon United — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Incheon United have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Incheon United's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Suwon City FC have won 1, Incheon United 0, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Suwon City FC 2–2 Incheon United — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Incheon United trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 58% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Incheon United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Incheon United 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.895 / defence 1.354 | Incheon United attack 1.004 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.168. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.354 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Incheon United's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 60 games and Incheon United's last 60.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 46%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.64 | Draw 3.79 | Incheon United 2.17. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.18 / Incheon United 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.895 / def 1.354 | Incheon United attack 1.004 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Incheon United xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Incheon United part of?
Suwon City FC vs Incheon United is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 27% chance of winning, Incheon United a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Suwon City FC and Incheon United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 60 games and Incheon United's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
27%
3.64
26%
3.79
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.59
Incheon United xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
6%
17.82
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.59 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 14D 31L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.40 PPG from 65 outings (22W 25D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.14 PPG, Incheon United on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 12W 7D 13L across their last 32 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 32 away games (11W 11D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.18 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Incheon United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 20W 14D 31L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 22W 25D 18L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Incheon United away?
Incheon United's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.34 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Incheon United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
1
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 4, Incheon United have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Incheon United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 July 2024: Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 66%, Incheon United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Suwon City FC) and 47% (Incheon United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 31%; Incheon United in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Incheon United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Incheon United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Suwon City FC's games and 50% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Incheon United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Suwon City FC's matches and 47% of Incheon United's.
Do Suwon City FC and Incheon United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 62% of Incheon United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Incheon United 1.59 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.35 against Incheon United attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 46%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG, Incheon United 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.