Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen meet at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daejeon Citizen's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Jeonbuk Motors's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 45% versus Daejeon Citizen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Daejeon Citizen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.91 xG and Daejeon Citizen 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.006 / defence 0.677 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.056 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.173. Daejeon Citizen's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output up. Jeonbuk Motors have a tight defence (rating 0.677), which is pulling Daejeon Citizen's projected output down. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 60 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 27.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 62% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 15%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.62 | Draw 4.33 | Daejeon Citizen 6.59. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 40% (last 10 home games) | Daejeon Citizen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 62% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.91 / Daejeon Citizen 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.006 / def 0.677 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.056 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Daejeon Citizen xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 62% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.01x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.06x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 60 games and Daejeon Citizen's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.33
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.74
0.84
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
44.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.84 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 29 games, going 14W 5D 10L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.45 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 10W 2D 3L across their last 15 home games, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Jeonbuk Motors are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.66 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 62%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Daejeon Citizen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.13 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
2
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 47%, Daejeon Citizen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 67% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 60% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.91 xG and Daejeon Citizen 0.84 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.01 / defence 0.68 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.06 / defence 1.35, drawn from 60/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 62% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 15%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 38%, Daejeon Citizen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.62 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.