Daegu FC 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daegu FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Daegu FC welcome Gangwon FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Friday 1 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Daegu FC — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Daegu FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gangwon FC stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Gangwon FC have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 0.90 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Daegu FC have won 0, Gangwon FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Jul 2023, ended Daegu FC 0–0 Gangwon FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 47% | Gangwon FC 39%). Note also that Gangwon FC surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.95 xG and Gangwon FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.830 / defence 0.817 | Gangwon FC attack 0.730 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.146. Gangwon FC's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 61 games and Gangwon FC's last 61.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.51 | Draw 2.83 | Gangwon FC 4.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.68 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Gangwon FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 29 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% (Under 77%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Daegu FC 0.95 / Gangwon FC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.830 / def 0.817 | Gangwon FC attack 0.730 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Gangwon FC xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 29) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Daegu FC and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (77%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.83) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 61 games and Gangwon FC's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.51
35%
2.83
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.64
0.68
Gangwon FC xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.68 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 27D 20L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 17W 19D 30L from 66 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.27 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 12D 7L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 7W 10D 15L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 19W 27D 20L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 17W 19D 30L in their last 66 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won Gangwon FC 3-0 Daegu FC.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daegu FC
4
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 47%, Gangwon FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Daegu FC) and 41% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Daegu FC's recent games and 41% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 62% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.95 xG and Gangwon FC 0.68 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Gangwon FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.82, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 25%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 47%, Gangwon FC 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.27 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.