Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.70 for Gwangju FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 70% of Gwangju FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% versus Gwangju FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 68% | Gwangju FC 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Gwangju FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.323 / defence 1.004 | Gwangju FC attack 0.898 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.143. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.323 — their 1.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 61 games and Gwangju FC's last 28.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.85 | Draw 4.19 | Gwangju FC 4.50. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 / Gwangju FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.323 / def 1.004 | Gwangju FC attack 0.898 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Gwangju FC xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 29) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 54% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.90x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 61 games and Gwangju FC's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.19
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.03
Gwangju FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.03 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 19W 4D 5L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 11W 9D 8L from 28 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gwangju FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.46 PPG from their last 13 home games (10W 2D 1L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 6D 4L from their last 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ulsan Hyundai FC's scoring rate against Gwangju FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 4D 5L in their last 28 games (2.18 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.46 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won Ulsan Hyundai FC 5-1 Gwangju FC on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 62% for Gwangju FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 85% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 31% (Gwangju FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 62% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 31% of Gwangju FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 46% of Gwangju FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Gwangju FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.32 / defence 1.00 against Gwangju FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 22%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 68%, Gwangju FC 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Gwangju FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.