Jeju United FC 0-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gwangju FC make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 11 July 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Jeju United FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Jeju World Cup Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Jeju United FC, 1.50 for Gwangju FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Gwangju FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Gwangju FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Gwangju FC 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.48 xG and Gwangju FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.014 / defence 1.131 | Gwangju FC attack 0.917 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.208. Data: 54 Jeju United FC games / 21 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Gwangju FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Gwangju FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jul 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Jeju United FC 1.48 / Gwangju FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.014 / def 1.131 | Gwangju FC attack 0.917 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gwangju FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 11 July 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 41% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (1.01) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.92x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 54/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.50
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.73
1.25
Gwangju FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.25 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 5D 8L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.38 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeju United FC's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 21 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Jeju United FC, 60% for Gwangju FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeju United FC) and 30% (Gwangju FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jeju United FC's games and 60% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 30% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.48 xG and Gwangju FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Gwangju FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Gwangju FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Gwangju FC 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.38 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.