NEOM vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEOM at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Khalid Sports City to take on NEOM. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 16:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEOM stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NEOM haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
NEOM's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at King Khalid Sports City this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fayha's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEOM at 1.30 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NEOM have won 1, Al-Fayha 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with NEOM winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NEOM trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 65% versus Al-Fayha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 53% | Al-Fayha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.59 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.922 / defence 0.965 | Al-Fayha attack 0.906 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 NEOM games / 34 Al-Fayha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: NEOM 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 28%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 3.57. NEOM hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEOM are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEOM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 60% | Al-Fayha 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG NEOM 1.59 / Al-Fayha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.922 / def 0.965 | Al-Fayha attack 0.906 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: NEOM (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Fayha kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 16:50 on Friday 14 August 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Fayha part of?
NEOM vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 45% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NEOM and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): NEOM 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Fayha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. NEOM (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEOM's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.83
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for NEOM and 1.22 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 12W 9D 13L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. NEOM haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fayha's form line: 10W 8D 16L from 34 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. Al-Fayha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEOM on 1.32 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEOM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEOM are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.21 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Pre-Season
Al-Fayha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Fayha away?
NEOM's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
NEOM
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when NEOM 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Fayha?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 65%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for NEOM and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NEOM's games and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of NEOM's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do NEOM and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.