Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to King Saud University Stadium to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 9W 1D 0L at King Saud University Stadium — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 8 of the last 10 meetings against Al-Fateh — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus Al-Fateh 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 65% | Al-Fateh 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.91 xG and Al-Fateh 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.224 / defence 0.824 | Al-Fateh attack 0.841 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Nassr games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 40% | Al-Fateh 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Nassr 1.91 / Al-Fateh 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.224 / def 0.824 | Al-Fateh attack 0.841 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Fateh xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 59% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Nassr 8W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.22) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.84x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.31
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.87
0.96
Al-Fateh xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
37.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.96 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 28W 2D 4L from 34 games, a 2.53 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. Al-Nassr haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 15L across 34 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 15W 1D 1L from 17 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.68 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 28W 2D 4L in their last 34 games (2.53 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.71 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 53%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Nassr) and 35% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Nassr's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 35% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.