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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (2.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Al-Fayha's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 45% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.014 / defence 0.958 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.381 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Al-Fayha games / 67 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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