Al Diriyah 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to take on Al Diriyah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ahli Jeddah haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 1.17 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.085 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Al Diriyah games / 34 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Diriyah 1.17 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.085 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 13 August 2026 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Diriyah 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Diriyah's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Diriyah's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
25%
3.97
25%
4.02
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
2.91
1.73
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
22.51
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 1.73 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Pre-Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Al Diriyah
0
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 1 meetings on record, Al Diriyah have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Diriyah 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Diriyah and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Diriyah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Diriyah 0-1 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Diriyah 1.17 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.73 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Diriyah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Diriyah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Diriyah 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.