Damac 2-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Damac (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Damac face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Fayha meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 December 2024 at 15:10 UK time.
Form
Damac (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Damac. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al-Fayha (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Damac have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Al-Fayha managing 0 and 3 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Damac 1–1 Al-Fayha — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Damac an edge — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 59% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Fayha 52%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Damac recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.65 xG and Al-Fayha 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.152 / defence 1.019 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.238. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Damac's last 46 games and Al-Fayha's last 46.
Result probabilities: Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.87 | Draw 4.07 | Al-Fayha 4.55. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 December 2024 at 15:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Damac 1.65 / Al-Fayha 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.152 / def 1.019 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Damac (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:10 UK time on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fayha part of?
Damac vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 53% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Damac and Al-Fayha will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Damac vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Damac's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 46 games and Al-Fayha's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Damac xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Damac and 0.96 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 19L across 46 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Damac against 1.11 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 9W 8D 6L from their last 23 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 7D 9L across their last 23 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.11 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fayha away?
Damac's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.52 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Damac and Al-Fayha, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 15 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Damac
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2026: Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Fayha 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Damac) and 61% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fayha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Fayha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Damac's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Damac's recent games and 61% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Damac's recent matches and 74% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Damac and Al-Fayha drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.65 xG and Al-Fayha 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.20 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.