Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Raed.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Raed to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.

Al-Raed — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Al-Raed have managed just 0 wins.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Al-Raed trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% versus Al-Raed 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72% | Al-Raed 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 xG and Al-Raed 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.548 / defence 0.808 | Al-Raed attack 0.923 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.292. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.548 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 46 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 18% | Al-Raed 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Raed 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Raed 40% BTTS from recent games.

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