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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Taawon) versus 1.70 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al Taawon trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 48% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 37% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.972 / defence 0.702 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.903 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.292. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Al Taawon games / 46 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Al-Ahli Jeddah's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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