Al-Fayha 0-1 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Orubah to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 November 2024 at 14:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Orubah stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Orubah have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 0.70 PPG versus Al Orubah's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Al Orubah trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 36% versus Al Orubah 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 36% | Al Orubah 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al Orubah 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.825 / defence 1.202 | Al Orubah attack 0.849 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.236. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.647 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 11 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 22% | Al Orubah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al Orubah 4.17. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Orubah 57%.

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