Al Taawon 1-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al Taawon welcome Al Riyadh to Al Taawon Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Club Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 54% versus Al Riyadh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al Riyadh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.31 xG and Al Riyadh 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.024 / defence 0.744 | Al Riyadh attack 0.787 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.365. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al Taawon games / 13 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 71% | Draw 18% | Al Riyadh 11%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Al Riyadh 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al Riyadh 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 71% | Draw 18% | Al Riyadh 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taawon 2.31 / Al Riyadh 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.024 / def 0.744 | Al Riyadh attack 0.787 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al Riyadh xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 71% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Riyadh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Riyadh in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.02) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.46
11%
9.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.11
0.80
Al Riyadh xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
9.22
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
10%
10.06
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
92.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.80 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Al Taawon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.92 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Taawon's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al Riyadh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Taawon and 83% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Riyadh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Taawon's matches and 83% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al Taawon and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Taawon 1-2 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.31 xG and Al Riyadh 0.80 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Riyadh outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.74 against Al Riyadh attack 0.79 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 71% | Draw 18% | Al Riyadh 11%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al Riyadh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.