Al-Nassr 3-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood meet at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al Awal Park at King Saud University: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this season.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 2.80 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 69% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 85% | Al Okhdood 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.11 xG and Al Okhdood 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.252 / defence 0.976 | Al Okhdood attack 0.806 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.375. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Al-Nassr games / 13 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Al Okhdood 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al Okhdood 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Nassr 2.11 / Al Okhdood 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.252 / def 0.976 | Al Okhdood attack 0.806 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al Okhdood xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Nassr 3 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 60% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.25x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.81x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.55
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.19
1.08
Al Okhdood xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
46.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.08 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 10W 1D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 3W 1D 9L from 13 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.77 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.77 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 10W 1D 2L in their last 13 games (2.38 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.17 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-9 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 50%, Al Okhdood 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Nassr) and 33% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 33% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 3-0 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.11 xG and Al Okhdood 1.08 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 0.98 against Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 18%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 85%, Al Okhdood 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.