Al-Hazm 0-9 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 85% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 69% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.99 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.889 / defence 1.526 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.348 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.381. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 2.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Al-Hazm games / 43 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 15% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 10.00 | Draw 6.67 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 60% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 83% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 15% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Hazm 0.99 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.889 / def 1.526 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.348 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.84
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
60%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hazm 0 - 9 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 10% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-3 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
10%
10.25
15%
6.52
75%
1.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 3
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.83
2.84
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
10.25
10%
Home win
6.52
15%
Draw
1.34
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
6%
17.12
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
1%
175.37
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.84 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 1W 4D 8L from 13 games, a 0.54 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 2D 0L across 13 games — 2.69 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 2.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 5W 1D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.46 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.62 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 83%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Hazm and 67% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al-Hazm's games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hazm's matches and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-9 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 0-9 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.99 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.84 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-9 for 9 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.84 projection by 6.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.89 / defence 1.53 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.71, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 10% | Draw 15% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 69%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 9 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 2.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.