Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Al-Ittihad FC — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 18:10 UK time.
Current Form
Al Taawon's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.40 for Al-Ittihad FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taawon's games and 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger record — 4 wins to Al Taawon's 1, with 4 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Al Taawon 0–1 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 53% versus Al-Ittihad FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 44% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Taawon surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Al-Ittihad FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.012 / defence 1.028 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.079 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.391. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 63 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 62.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.48 | Draw 4.25 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 18:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Al Taawon 1.64 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.012 / def 1.028 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.079 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Ittihad FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:10 UK time on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Taawon 0 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.08x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 63 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.25
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.19
1.54
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.54 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 16D 21L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.06 PPG from 62 outings (39W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taawon's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 10D 7L). That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ittihad FC's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 65%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 games (1.47 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 39W 11D 12L in their last 62 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 29 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al Taawon on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
4
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 April 2026: Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Al Taawon, 77% for Al-Ittihad FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Taawon) and 60% (Al-Ittihad FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Taawon's games and 77% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Taawon's recent games and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 0-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 44%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.