Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Taawon face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Al Taawon Arena in Pro League (matchday 32). Kick-off is Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Al Taawon.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2026, ended Al Taawon 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Al Taawon trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 52% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 43% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Taawon surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Al-Ahli Jeddah have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.08 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.934 / defence 1.057 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.967 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.442. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.757, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Taawon's projected output down. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 65 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 65.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.70 | Draw 3.66 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.19. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 away games).

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