Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

King Fahd International Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Shabab's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Shabab have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Shabab are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2023, ended Al Shabab 1–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 56% versus Al-Ittihad FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 63% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 0.94 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.041 / defence 0.937 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.149 / defence 0.582. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.444. Al-Ittihad FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.582, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Shabab's projected output down. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 41 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 41.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 4.40 | Draw 3.92 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.93. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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