Al-Raed 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 40%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Raed welcome Al Shabab to Al Taawon Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 3W 1D 6L at Al Taawon Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Al Shabab have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Al-Raed's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al Shabab have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 55% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 69% | Al Shabab 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.58 xG and Al Shabab 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.889 / defence 1.225 | Al Shabab attack 0.865 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.383. Data: 42 Al-Raed games / 42 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 40% | Al Shabab 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Raed 1.58 / Al Shabab 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.889 / def 1.225 | Al Shabab attack 0.865 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al Shabab xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 9 November 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Al-Raed 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 40% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.09
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.05
1.47
Al Shabab xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.47 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 10D 22L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (21W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 6W 3D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.71 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Shabab runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 57%, Al Shabab 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Al-Raed and 71% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Raed's games and 71% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Raed's matches and 71% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Shabab 2-1 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.58 xG and Al Shabab 1.47 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Al Shabab attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 40% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 35%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 69%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Al-Raed winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.