Al-Ittihad FC 4-2 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Abha travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Abha, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 4–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Abha trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 33% versus Abha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 xG and Abha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.007 / defence 0.984 | Abha attack 0.733 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.364. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad FC games / 42 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 23% | Abha 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Abha 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Abha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 23% | Abha 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 / Abha 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.007 / def 0.984 | Abha attack 0.733 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Abha xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 2 Abha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 58% chance of winning, Abha a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 0 | Abha 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Abha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.32
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.89
0.98
Abha xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
36.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.98 for Abha, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 28W 9D 5L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 14W 4D 24L from 42 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L).
On the road, Abha have gone 3W 1D 16L from 20 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.10 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 28W 9D 5L in their last 42 games (2.21 PPG), while Abha have gone 14W 4D 24L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Abha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Abha away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Abha in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Abha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Abha 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ittihad FC 25% BTTS, Abha 45%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 60% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 45% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 60% of Abha's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Abha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Abha 4-2 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 xG and Abha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Abha attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Draw 23% | Abha 18%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 55%, Abha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.