Al Taee 3-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taee face Al-Fayha.

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Analysis

Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Friday 3 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al Taee's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al Taee's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Taee are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Fayha away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Al Taee against 1.10 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Fayha edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 May 2023, ended Al Taee 2–1 Al-Fayha — a Al Taee win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 49% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al-Fayha 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.21 xG and Al-Fayha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.880 / defence 1.032 | Al-Fayha attack 1.005 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.431. Data: built from Al Taee's last 41 games and Al-Fayha's last 41.

Result probabilities: Al Taee 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.23 | Draw 3.91 | Al-Fayha 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taee 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 70% (last 10 away games).

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