Al Taawon 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Taawon Club Stadium plays host to Al Taawon versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 8W 2D 0L at Al Taawon Club Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Damac (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al Taawon's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Damac and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 66% and Damac 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.98 xG and Damac 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.183 / defence 0.807 | Damac attack 0.901 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.409. Data: 41 Al Taawon games / 41 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 60% | Draw 21% | Damac 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Damac 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 60% | Draw 21% | Damac 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taawon 1.98 / Damac 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.183 / def 0.807 | Damac attack 0.901 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Damac xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Damac kick off?
Al Taawon vs Damac kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Al Taawon 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Taawon vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Damac part of?
Al Taawon vs Damac is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 60% chance of winning, Damac a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taawon and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 2 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Damac (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.18) and Damac's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.90x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.67
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.00
1.02
Damac xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
3%
38.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.02 for Damac, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 10D 8L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.20 PPG from 41 outings (12W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.24 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 23W 10D 8L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Damac have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Damac away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.90 PPG; Damac away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Damac?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al Taawon, 60% for Damac — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al Taawon) and 55% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taawon's games and 60% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Taawon's matches and 55% of Damac's.
Do Al Taawon and Damac tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Damac in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Taawon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Al Taawon and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.98 xG and Damac 1.02 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Damac landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against Damac attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 60% | Draw 21% | Damac 19%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.