Al-Hazm 1-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 29 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — last 7 games: 0W 3D 4L, averaging 0.43 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%). Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 home games — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taawon's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 2.07 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Hazm's games and 60% of Al Taawon's (from Al-Hazm's last 3 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Taawon 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2022, ended Al-Hazm 1–2 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 71% and Al Taawon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 43% | Al Taawon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.89 xG and Al Taawon 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.707 / defence 1.342 | Al Taawon attack 1.025 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.471. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 7 games and Al Taawon's last 37.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 6.33 | Draw 4.85 | Al Taawon 1.57. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 3 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 67% (last 3 home games) | Al Taawon 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al-Hazm 0.89 / Al Taawon 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.707 / def 1.342 | Al Taawon attack 1.025 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Al Taawon xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hazm 1 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 16% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hazm's last 7 games and Al Taawon's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
16%
6.33
21%
4.85
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.92
2.02
Al Taawon xG
6.33
16%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
13%
7.56
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
47.88
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.02 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 0W 3D 4L from 7 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 1L across 7 games — 2.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 1.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 home games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across their last 3 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.86 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Hazm (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.33 PPG; Al Taawon away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hazm have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won Al Taawon 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al Taawon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Al-Hazm 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 67%, Al Taawon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Hazm and 33% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 67%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hazm and Al Taawon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 33% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hazm and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 100% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Hazm 1-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.89 xG and Al Taawon 2.02 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 2.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.71 / defence 1.34 against Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.83, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 43%, Al Taawon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.