Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Shabab — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al Shabab's games and 60% of Al-Fateh's (from Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Fateh 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Al Shabab 0–2 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 61% and Al-Fateh 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 55% | Al-Fateh 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.089 / defence 1.232 | Al-Fateh attack 0.852 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.386. Al Shabab's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 62 games and Al-Fateh's last 62.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.10 | Draw 4.46 | Al-Fateh 3.33. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights