Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 82% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Shabab and Al-Adalah meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Shabab have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Shabab at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al Shabab are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Adalah's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 0W 2D 7L in their last 9 away fixtures (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Al Shabab's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Adalah's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al Shabab edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2022, ended Al Shabab 1–0 Al-Adalah — a Al Shabab win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Adalah 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al-Adalah 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.66 xG and Al-Adalah 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.188 / defence 0.634 | Al-Adalah attack 0.682 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.219. Al-Adalah's defence rating of 1.534 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.682 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.53. Al Shabab have a tight defence (rating 0.634), which is pulling Al-Adalah's projected output down. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 48 games and Al-Adalah's last 18.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 82% | Draw 13% | Al-Adalah 5%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.21 | Draw 7.90 | Al-Adalah 20.04. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (82%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 20% (last 10 home games) | Al-Adalah 44% (last 9 away games).

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