Al-Adalah 2-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Adalah at 45%, yet in-form Al Khaleej Saihat provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Adalah have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Adalah have posted 2W 2D 4L at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1W 0D 6L from 7 away outings — 0.43 PPG. Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Khaleej Saihat are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Adalah 0W, Al Khaleej Saihat 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Adalah — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 50% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.31 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.782 / defence 1.269 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.603 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.160. Al-Adalah's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Al-Adalah games / 16 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 45% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Al Khaleej Saihat 4.17. Al-Adalah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Adalah at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Khaleej Saihat (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Adalah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Adalah 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 45% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Adalah 1.31 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.782 / def 1.269 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.603 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Al-Adalah (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Adalah 2 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 45% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Adalah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Adalah 0W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Adalah's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.60x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Adalah Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.31
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.20
0.89
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 0.89 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Adalah come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 4D 10L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (5W 1D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.62 PPG for Al-Adalah against 1.00 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Adalah's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.62 PPG overall — Al-Adalah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Khaleej Saihat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Adalah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.81 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 25%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 5W 1D 10L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.14 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Al-Adalah or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Adalah have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Adalah
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 1, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Al-Adalah 2-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Adalah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Adalah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 57%, Al Khaleej Saihat 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Adalah) and 43% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 43% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 14% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Adalah's recent games and 43% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Adalah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Adalah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.31 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.89 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.60 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 45% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%, with Al-Adalah to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Adalah 0.62 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Adalah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.