Al Wehda Club 3-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 2 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 4W 3D 2L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 28% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 33% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.709 / defence 1.182 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.114 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.160. Al Wehda Club's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Al Wehda Club games / 45 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 33% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Wehda Club 0.80 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.709 / def 1.182 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.114 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 2 March 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Wehda Club 3 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 19% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
19%
5.22
27%
3.76
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.32
1.53
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.22
19%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
4%
24.02
24%
4.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 15.0 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.53 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 4D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.28 PPG from 18 outings (12W 5D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.25 points per game from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.83 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 12W 5D 1L in their last 18 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
2
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 88% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 38%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al Wehda Club) and 38% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 62%; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 38% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 38% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 3-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.53 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.71 / defence 1.18 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 18/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 33%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.