Al-Adalah 0-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Raed travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Adalah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Adalah stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah's home record at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Adalah at 1.20 PPG versus Al-Raed's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Adalah, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Adalah in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 47% versus Al-Raed 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 53% | Al-Raed 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.842 / defence 1.129 | Al-Raed attack 0.911 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.296. Data: 19 Al-Adalah games / 49 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Raed 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Adalah 44% | Al-Raed 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Adalah 1.17 / Al-Raed 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.842 / def 1.129 | Al-Raed attack 0.911 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Raed xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed?
Al-Adalah 0 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 32% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Adalah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Raed in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Adalah's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Adalah's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.65
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.50
1.33
Al-Raed xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.33 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Adalah have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 4W 4D 11L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 6W 3D 10L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Adalah on 0.84 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Adalah have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.16 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.22 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Adalah and Al-Raed runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Raed?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 0, Al-Raed have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Al-Adalah 0-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Adalah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 44%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Adalah) and 67% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 44% of games; Al-Raed in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 56% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Adalah's matches and 67% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Adalah and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Adalah 0-3 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.33 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Adalah fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Raed outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Al-Raed attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 53%, Al-Raed 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Adalah 0.84 PPG, Al-Raed 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.