Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Thursday 9 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 7W 2D 1L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Al Shabab, 2.10 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al Shabab have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Al Shabab winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 52% versus Al-Fayha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 58% | Al-Fayha 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.59 xG and Al-Fayha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.082 / defence 0.763 | Al-Fayha attack 1.036 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.237. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al Shabab games / 48 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 4.35. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 30% | Al-Fayha 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Shabab 1.59 / Al-Fayha 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.082 / def 0.763 | Al-Fayha attack 1.036 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Fayha xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 9 March 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab 3 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 51% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.04x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.80
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.57
0.98
Al-Fayha xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.98 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 27W 14D 7L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 14W 16D 18L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (16W 7D 2L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 9D 12L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.90 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 27W 14D 7L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 16D 18L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.20 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 40%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Shabab) and 36% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Shabab's recent games and 36% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fayha 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 3-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.59 xG and Al-Fayha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.08 / defence 0.76 against Al-Fayha attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 23%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 58%, Al-Fayha 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (48 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (48 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.