Al-Raed 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Raed haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Al-Raed's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 60% versus Al-Ittihad FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.081 / defence 1.047 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.208. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Al-Raed games / 30 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Raed 1.40 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.081 / def 1.047 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.08
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.95
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 7D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. Al-Raed haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (22W 6D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Raed's home form reads 5W 3D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.27 points per game from 15 outings (10W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 63% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 22W 6D 2L in their last 30 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 60%, Al-Ittihad FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Raed and 67% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 47%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Raed's games and 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Raed's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 0-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 70%, Al-Ittihad FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.