Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Raed to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) versus 1.30 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Raed in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Raed and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Raed trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% versus Al-Raed 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Al-Raed 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.02 xG and Al-Raed 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.270 / defence 0.858 | Al-Raed attack 0.921 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 59 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Raed 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.02 / Al-Raed 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.270 / def 0.858 | Al-Raed attack 0.921 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 60% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.65
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.05
1.03
Al-Raed xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
40.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.03 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 59 games, going 36W 15D 8L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.19 PPG from 59 outings (19W 13D 27L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 19W 6D 4L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.00 points per game from 29 outings (7W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.25 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al-Raed
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 36W 15D 8L in their last 59 games (2.08 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Raed have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Raed 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 69% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Raed in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 55% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 69% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Raed 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.02 xG and Al-Raed 1.03 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.86 against Al-Raed attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 19%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Raed 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.