Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Qadisiyah FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Nassr (2.70 vs 2.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Qadisiyah FC, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Al-Nassr — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Qadisiyah FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% versus Al-Nassr 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al-Nassr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.50 xG and Al-Nassr 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.131 / defence 0.884 | Al-Nassr attack 1.424 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 39 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Nassr 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.50 / Al-Nassr 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.131 / def 0.884 | Al-Nassr attack 1.424 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 33% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.42x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.58
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.65 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 27W 8D 4L from 39 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 32W 2D 5L across 39 games — 2.51 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.28 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.51 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 6D 1L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 14W 1D 4L across 19 trips, a 2.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.67 scored and 0.85 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 27W 8D 4L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 32W 2D 5L in their last 39 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Nassr 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 74% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 53% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 74% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.