Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at King Saud University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.30 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Al-Hazm managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 4–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 52% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Hazm 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.340 / defence 0.720 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Al-Nassr games / 43 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 2.01 / Al-Hazm 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.340 / def 0.720 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Hazm xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 May 2027 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 60% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.34) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.90x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
60%
1.66
27%
3.75
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.91
0.90
Al-Hazm xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
57.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.90 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 34W 3D 5L from 42 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 18L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 18W 1D 1L from 20 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 34W 3D 5L in their last 42 games (2.50 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.75 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 1-5 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 55%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Nassr and 60% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Nassr's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Nassr's matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.