Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Qadisiyah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 56% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.88 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.016 / defence 1.183 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.465 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — the away xG of 2.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 10% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 10% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fayha 0.88 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.016 / def 1.183 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.465 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
2.48
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 May 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 10% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 71% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.02x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 2.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
10%
10.32
20%
5.10
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.36
2.48
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
10.32
10%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
8%
11.97
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
1%
123.48
29%
3.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 2.48 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 13D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.27 PPG from 45 outings (31W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.41 points per game from 22 outings (17W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.42 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 9D 5L in their last 45 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 59%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 68% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fayha's games and 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Fayha's matches and 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.