Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al-Ettifaq's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al Shabab in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings against Al Shabab — a 5D 1W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Ettifaq a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al Shabab 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 59% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG and Al Shabab 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.133 / defence 1.268 | Al Shabab attack 0.750 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.400. Data: 38 Al-Ettifaq games / 38 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Al Shabab 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.35 / Al Shabab 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.133 / def 1.268 | Al Shabab attack 0.750 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 5 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (1.13) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.75x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.30
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.68
1.33
Al Shabab xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.33 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 17W 8D 14L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab's form line: 8W 14D 17L from 39 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 9D 8L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.26 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 14D 17L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al Shabab 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Ettifaq) and 26% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games; Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 47% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 26% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.