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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Al-Faisaly FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to . Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ahli Jeddah haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.095 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Al-Faisaly FC games / 34 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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