Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Al-Faisaly FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to . Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 0W 3D 3L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC at this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Al-Faisaly FC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.99 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.961 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 26% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 26% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.99 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.961 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.61x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
26%
3.89
34%
2.92
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.27
1.28
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.98
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.28 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 3D 3L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 33%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 100% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.