Al-Raed 1-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al Okhdood meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 1D 5L across 7 Pro League outings this term — 0.57 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.57 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Raed, 0.57 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Raed 29% | Al Okhdood 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 71% | Al Okhdood 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.26 xG and Al Okhdood 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.946 / defence 1.177 | Al Okhdood attack 0.675 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.448. Data: 37 Al-Raed games / 7 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 39% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Al Okhdood 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 40% | Al Okhdood 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 39% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Raed 1.26 / Al Okhdood 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.946 / def 1.177 | Al Okhdood attack 0.675 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 39% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.68x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.63
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.41
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.15 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.57 PPG for Al-Raed against 0.57 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Raed's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Al Okhdood travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Al Okhdood in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Okhdood's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Okhdood have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
0
Draws
3
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Raed) and 33% (Al Okhdood) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Al-Raed) and 0% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 33%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Okhdood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al-Raed's recent games and 0% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.26 xG and Al Okhdood 1.15 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Al Okhdood attack 0.68 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 39% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 34%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Okhdood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 71%, Al Okhdood 14%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.57 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.