Al-Raed 1-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Raed face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al Okhdood meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Raed have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Raed are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 1D 5L across their last 7 — 0.57 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%). Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.57 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Raed, 0.57 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 29% of Al-Raed's games and 29% of Al Okhdood's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 71% | Al Okhdood 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.26 xG and Al Okhdood 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.946 / defence 1.177 | Al Okhdood attack 0.675 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.448. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 37 games and Al Okhdood's last 7.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 39% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.58 | Draw 3.63 | Al Okhdood 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 33% (last 3 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 39% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al-Raed 1.26 / Al Okhdood 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.946 / def 1.177 | Al Okhdood attack 0.675 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 39% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Okhdood will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.68x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 37 games and Al Okhdood's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.63
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.41
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.15 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.57 PPG for Al-Raed against 0.57 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Raed's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across their last 3 home games, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 3 away games (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.57 PPG overall record — Al Okhdood travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Al Okhdood in 29%.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Okhdood's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Okhdood have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
0
Draws
3
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 May 2025: Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Okhdood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Raed) and 33% (Al Okhdood) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Al-Raed) and 0% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 33%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Okhdood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al Okhdood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Raed and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al-Raed's recent games and 0% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.26 xG and Al Okhdood 1.15 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Al Okhdood attack 0.68 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 39% | Draw 28% | Al Okhdood 34%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Okhdood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 71%, Al Okhdood 14%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.57 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.