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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025, 14:40 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 1L across 6 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 17% rate and Al Taawon's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

In-Play Data

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.

Al Taawon trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 31% | Al Taawon 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% | Al Taawon 23%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 xG and Al Taawon 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.766 | Al Taawon attack 0.744 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.447. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 47 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.

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