Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025, 14:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 1L across 6 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 17% rate and Al Taawon's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Al Taawon trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 31% | Al Taawon 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% | Al Taawon 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 xG and Al Taawon 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.766 | Al Taawon attack 0.744 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.447. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 47 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 / Al Taawon 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.930 / def 0.766 | Al Taawon attack 0.744 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al Taawon xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:40 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 0 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 43% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (0.93) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.25
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
1.95
0.82
Al Taawon xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.82 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 9W 1D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taawon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Al Taawon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 9W 1D 3L in their last 13 games (2.15 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al Taawon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% BTTS, Al Taawon 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 33% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al Taawon in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 33% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 xG and Al Taawon 0.82 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Taawon outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.77 against Al Taawon attack 0.74 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 27%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%, Al Taawon 23%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.