Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Nassr face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Saud University Stadium in Pro League (matchday 32). Kick-off is Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Nassr at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Nassr 2.70 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Nassr, 4 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2026, ended Al-Nassr 1–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 60% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.380 / defence 0.652 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.398 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.438. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.380 — their 1.61 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.776, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.398, which lifts their away xG to 1.31. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.652), which is pulling Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 66 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 65.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.28 | Draw 3.86 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 32 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.61 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.380 / def 0.652 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.398 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 32) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 66 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.86
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.31 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 47W 7D 11L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 46W 14D 5L from 65 games, 2.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.28 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.35 PPG from their last 31 home games (23W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 20W 8D 3L from their last 31 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.71 scored and 1.03 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking output running into Al-Nassr's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 47W 7D 11L in their last 65 games (2.28 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 14D 5L in their last 65 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.35 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Nassr 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
4
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Nassr and 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Nassr's games and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Nassr's matches and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 90% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.38 / defence 0.65 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.40 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.28 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.